When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

US Monthly Retail Sales Overview

Thursday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly Retail Sales figures for August, due later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. On a monthly basis, the headline sales are estimated to remain flat for the second straight month. Excluding autos, core retail sales probably rose a modest 0.1% during the reported month, down from 0.4% growth in July.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank sounded more optimistic and offered a brief preview of the report: “We expect a +0.6% MoM reading, up from last month's flat print. As gasoline prices continue their downward trend, whether this assuages the inflationary pressures on consumer spending will be important.”

How Could it Affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key release, expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed continue to act as a tailwind for the US dollar. A surprisingly stronger data will lift bets for a full 100 bps at next week's FOMC meeting and provide an additional lift to the USD. Conversely, any disappointment is unlikely to dent the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the buck, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside.

Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, outlines important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend forms key resistance at 1.0000. The 50 and the 100-period SMAs on the four-hour chart reinforce that level as well. In case EUR/USD manages to flip that level into support, it could target the 1.0030/40 area (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 20-period SMA) and the 1.0070/80 area (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).”

“On the downside, sellers could take action with a drop below 0.9950 (static level) and cause EUR/USD to decline toward 0.9900 (psychological level) and 0.9865 (September 6 low),” Eren adds further.

Key Notes

• US Retail Sales Preview: Can consumers keep up with inflation? A breather could weigh on the dollar

• US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, can the US consumer remain strong?

• EUR/USD Forecast: Euro defines range before next breakout

About US Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

GBP/USD stays slightly offered below 1.3600

Following an initial drop to fresh six-day lows, GBP/USD now picks up some updside traction and trades in levels just shy of the 1.3600 barrier on Thursday. The generalised cautious tone among market participants continue to underpin the Greenback ahead of Friday’s data releases and the Fed Warsh’s speech.

EUR/USD struggles for direction around 1.1650

EUR/USD gyrates around the 1.1650 region amid the absence of clear direction and following an earlier drop to the 1.630 area. The pair’s vacillating mood comes in response to the equally irresolute price action in the US Dollar as investors warm up for the release of the NFP Annual Revision and the speech by the Fed’s Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, both events due on Friday.

Gold holds firm above $4,600 as Warsh speech looms

Gold extended its gains on Thursday, up 0.17% as US jobs data was solid, while the US trade deficit widened. In the meantime, investors eye Fed Chair Warsh's speech, keeping the precious metal near familiar levels. The XAU/USD trades at $4,601 at the time of writing.

Solana, Avalanche, Chainlink see gains as Charles Schwab plans to roll out spot trading products

Charles Schwab plans to expand its crypto trading offering by adding spot trading for Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX) and Chainlink (LINK) to its Schwab Crypto platform, according to a statement on Thursday. The financial services firm announced that clients will be able to buy and sell SOL, AVAX and LINK in their Schwab Crypto accounts in the coming months.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.