US monthly retail sales overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for July, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. The headline sales are anticipated to have increased by 1.9% during the reported month as against the 18.2% and 7.5% gains recorded in May and June, respectively. Meanwhile, sales excluding autos are projected to climb 1.3% in July following the rise of 7.3% in June and 12.1% in May. The closely watched Retail Sales Control Group are forecast to climb 0.8% in July after June’s 5.6% and May’s 10.1% increases.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Stronger-than-expected figures will further fuel hopes of the US economic recovery and might be enough to provide a modest lift to the US dollar. That said, the market reaction is more likely to be muted amid uncertainty over the next round of the US fiscal stimulus measures. Investors might also be reluctant to place any aggressive directional bets ahead of a crucial weekend meeting between the US and Chinese trade officials.
Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst, provided some important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Resistance awaits at around 1.1865, which was the peak on Thursday. It is followed by the two-year high of 1.1915. The next target is 1.20. Immediate support is at the daily low of 1.18, converging with the 50 SMA. It is followed by 1.1750, a support line from last week, and then by 1.17, a double-bottom.”
Key Notes
• US Retail Sales July Preview: Expectations of moderation may be overstated
• EUR/USD Forecast: Down but not out, bulls well-positioned to rally on retail sales
• EUR/USD: Rally overextended, dollar still the king – Rabobank
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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