UK Jobs report overview
The UK labor market report is expected to show that the number of people seeking jobless benefits increased by 2.3k in the three months to Oct, compared to an increase of 1.7k booked in the three months to Sept.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% during the period. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to Sept, are expected to come in a tad weaker at 2.1%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen ticking slightly higher to 2.2% versus 2.1% previous.
Deviation impact on GBP/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 60 pips in deviations up to 2 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 85 pips.
How could affect GBP/USD?
A positive surprise in the claimant count combined with higher average earnings could lift Cable back above 1.32 handle. On a poor outcome, we could see the GBP/USD pair stall its recovery mode and head back towards 1.3100 mark.
Technically, “Below 100-day SMA, currently near the 1.3115 region, the 1.3050 level should continue to offer strong support, which if broken should accelerate the slide towards a short-term descending trend-line support near the key 1.30 psychological mark. Alternatively, a clear break through the 1.3200 handle might trigger a short-covering bounce towards the 1.3300 handle, which if conquered might negate any near-term bearish bias and pave way for extension of the pair's upward trajectory in the near-term,” Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet writes.
Key notes
UK unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3% - TDS
“We’re in line with the BoE though looking for it to slip to 4.2% before the end of the year. For wage growth, we’re a tenth below consensus in looking for a small dip to 2.0% y/y in September, before picking up again into year-end. Private sector pay should look a bit stronger at 2.4% y/y.”
About UK jobs
The Claimant Change released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) presents the number of unemployed people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses
Bitcoin address data is live on Google search results after users realized on Thursday that the tech giant started indexing Bitcoin blockchain data. However, mixed reactions have followed the tech giant's reversed stance on the cryptocurrency.
A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP
The latest revisions put Q4 GDP at 3.4%, the second fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. Much of the upside was attributable to stronger consumer spending, yet fresh profits data affirmed it was a good quarter for the bottom line as well with profits up by the most since the Q2-2022.