When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0830 GMT, are expected to drop 0.3% m/m in March, following a 0.4% rise seen in February. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 4.6% over the year in the reported month, up from 4.0% booked previously.

Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen declining 0.3% m/m while rising 4.0% y/y.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “The 1.30 round figure mark is likely to act as immediate support, which if broken might expose the very important 200-day SMA support, currently near the 1.2965 region. A convincing break through the mentioned support will reinforce a near-term bearish breakdown and turn the pair vulnerable to aim towards testing sub-1.2900 level.”

“On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt might now confront some fresh supply near the 1.3085 region and is closely followed by the 1.3100 round figure mark. The latter coincides with a short-term descending trend-line resistance, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the pair back towards the 1.3200 neighborhood amid relatively thin trading conditions ahead of the Easter holidays,” Haresh adds.

Key Notes

GBP/JPY defends 200-hour MA ahead of UK retail sales

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Closing on confluence of key resistances at 1.3053

About the UK retail sales

The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.