When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0930 GMT, are expected to drop 0.4% m/m in February, following the sharp rebound of 1.0% seen in January. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 3.3% over the year in the reported month, down from 4.2% booked previously.

Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen bouncing 0.2% m/m while rising 3.0% y/y.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: From a technical perspective, the pair's inability to capitalize on the post-FOMC bounce to mid-1.3200s clearly points to persistent selling bias at higher levels and support prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. A fresh leg of the weakness has the potential to accelerate the fall further towards challenging the 1.3100 handle. On the flip side, the 1.3260-65 region now seems to act as an immediate resistance and is followed by the 1.3300 round figure mark.”

The GBP reaction to the data is likely to be limited, as the BOE monetary policy decision and the Brexit-related headlines will continue to drive the flows in the British currency.

Key Notes

UK: Focus on BoE and retail sales – TDS

FX Today: Antipodeans rally on better data; eyes on UK retail sales, Brexit, BOE

BoE Preview: Major Banks expecting no fireworks today

About the UK retail sales

The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.