USD/ZAR targets 15.00 as South Africa’s developments take a back seat – Credit Suisse


USD/ZAR looks set to continue to stabilise in the short-run as the rand’s sensitivity to swings in yields on US Treasuries declines, and as local developments continue to take a back seat. Economists at Credit Suisse raise the short-term USD/ZAR target to 15.00 (from 14.60 previously). A break below 14.40 (the year-to-date low) or above 15.60 (the year-to-date high) will require a major change in the global picture.

Key quotes

“We think USD/ZAR will continue to range-trade in the short run, as the rand’s sensitivity to moves in US rates seems to be declining. We raise our short-term target for USD/ZAR slightly to 15.00 from 14.60 as we think external factors point in that direction while domestic developments will affect USD/ZAR less than international developments.”

“A meaningful break in USD/ZAR below its 24 February low (14.39-14.40) will require a clear improvement in the global risk sentiment – one that involves for example a return in the Nasdaq100 index to the all-time high it hit in February. Although such a USD/ZAR scenario is possible, we refrain from including it in our base case scenario, in part because of our generally USD – positive view.” 

“USD/ZAR failed to break substantially above the 15.60 area in the two episodes since the start of the year when US real rates pushed higher in a major way – in the second week of January and in the second week of March. All-else being equal, we suspect that a return to that level will, at least initially, raise investors’ appetite to sell USD/ZAR.”

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

How do emotions affect trade?
Follow up our daily analysts guidance

Subscribe Today!    

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Indecisive above 1.1700 as Fed tapering looms

EUR/USD retreats towards 1.1700, teasing monthly low for third straight day. Market sentiment improves over Evergrande, US debt limit extension. ECB policymakers cite inflation risks. Fed remains in focus, as it is expected to provide hints on tapering timing.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD remains defensive near 1.3650 amid steady USD, Fed eyed

GBP/USD trades virtually unchanged around 1.3650 following the footprint of the previous session. Supply-chain bottlenecks, higher gas prices limited gains for sterling. US dollar remains elevated near 92.30 ahead of the Fed decision.

GBP/USD News

Gold sees elusive recovery toward $1,780, Fed eyed

Gold prices print minute gains on Wednesday and lack conviction to break $1,780 convincingly due to a sudden uptick in the greenback following a show from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). FOMC volatility, improved risk sentiment exert pressure on the higher side.

Gold News

MATIC price at make or break point as Polygon launches $2 million bounty program

MATIC price has experienced a massive downswing over the past four days and seems to have found temporary relief. If the buyers step in, there is a chance of a minor rally, but failing to do so might trigger a further descent.

Read more

Fed Preview: Three ways in which Powell could down the dollar, and none is the dot-plot

No taper now, but when? That is the main question investors have for the Federal Reserve in its all-important September meeting. The bank buys $120 billion worth of bonds every month and it is set to reduce the pace at some point.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures