The South African rand has stood out as the best-performing EM currency against the US dollar since the start of the year. Despite its recent appreciation, economists at Capital Economics expect the rand – like most emerging market (EM) currencies – to end this year weaker against the greenback.
Commodity prices to fall back, US Treasury yields to resume their rise
“After a substantial rally from their lows during the pandemic, we forecast the prices of most industrial and precious metals – key exports of South Africa – to fall by year-end. Similarly, global risk premia are now at very low levels and we do not expect them to fall much further. If anything, risk appetite could falter as US Treasury yields rise.”
“We think that a weak economic recovery means that the Reserve Bank of South Africa (SARB) will need to keep rates low for longer than most currently anticipate. While South Africa’s fiscal discipline stands out compared to many similar emerging markets, it is also a cause of its slow economic recovery and underscores its heavy reliance on loose monetary policy.”
“Rising COVID-19 cases and limited vaccination progress are likely to slow the economic recovery further and raise the likelihood that the government will need to loosen its austerity measures. In that case, concerns about fiscal sustainability may start to affect the rand.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hovers around 1.0700 after German IFO data
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 in the European session on Wednesday. Upbeat IFO sentiment data from Germany helps the Euro hold its ground as market focus shifts to US Durable Goods Orders data.
USD/JPY refreshes 34-year high, attacks 155.00 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is renewing a multi-decade high, closing in on 155.00. Traders turn cautious on heightened risks of Japan's FX intervention. Broad US Dollar rebound aids the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold price trades with mild negative bias, manages to hold above $2,300 ahead of US data
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower during the early European session on Wednesday, albeit manages to hold its neck above the $2,300 mark and over a two-week low touched the previous day.
Worldcoin looks set for comeback despite Nvidia’s 22% crash Premium
Worldcoin price is in a better position than last week's and shows signs of a potential comeback. This development occurs amid the sharp decline in the valuation of the popular GPU manufacturer Nvidia.
Three fundamentals for the week: US GDP, BoJ and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge stand out Premium
While it is hard to predict when geopolitical news erupts, the level of tension is lower – allowing for key data to have its say. This week's US figures are set to shape the Federal Reserve's decision next week – and the Bank of Japan may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration.