USD: Will the nonfarm payrolls report support expectations for Fed cuts? – MUFG

The major currency rates have remained relatively stable overnight following on from last week’s modest rebound for the US dollar. It brought an end to the run of four consecutive weekly declines for the dollar index which has risen back up towards the 100.00-level after hitting a year to date low of 97.921 on 25th April, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman notes.

US Dollar stabilizes after recent declines

"The US dollar derived some support last week from building investor optimism that President Trump may further reverse the disruptive trade policies he has put in place during his second term in the coming months including significantly lowering the current “unsustainable” tariff rate of 145% applied to imports from China. At the same time, President Trump stated clearly that he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Powell which has helped to restore some much-needed confidence in US policymaking after the big hit to confidence that has taken place during most of this month triggered initially by the 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement on 2nd April."

:The improvement in investor confidence in US policymaking was also evident by last week’s performance of the US bond and equity markets. The S&P 500 equity index continued to rebound and has now reversed most of the losses initially sustained following the 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement when it fell by almost 15%. Similarly, the US bond market has been rebounding since US yields hit a high on 9th April. The 30-year US Treasury yield has fallen back towards 4.70% moving further below the year to date high of 5.02%. However, we remain unconvinced that the policy u-turn announced so far will be sufficient to trigger a sustained rebound for the US dollar with current tariff rates still hugely disruptive to global trade and the US economy."

"Dovish comments from Fed officials at the end of last week indicated that they are ready to lower rates if downside risk to growth materialize. Fed Governor Waller stated “it wouldn’t surprise me that you might start seeing more layoffs, a tick up in the unemployment rate going forward if the big tariffs in particular come back on. If I see a significant drop in the labour market, then the employment side of the mandate, I think, is important that we step in”. However, he doesn’t expect the tariffs to have a significant impact on the Us economy before July signalling that he currently favours waiting until the September FOMC meeting before beginning to cut rates unless the labour market weakens more quickly than expected."