USD: Trump gets his FOMC dove – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

President Trump nominated Stephen Miran to fill the vacant FOMC seat until the end of January, pending Senate confirmation in September, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

DXY can stabilise around 98.0 today

"Miran has echoed Trump’s dovish calls and Fed criticism of late, as well as downplaying the inflationary impact of tariffs. He’s widely expected to join Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman in the dovish camp for the few meetings he will attend, with a non-negligible risk he might try to build consensus for a 50bp move. But this is an interim position, and reports suggesting that Waller (a more moderate dove than Kevin Hassett) is now the favourite to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell may well have mitigated the downside impact for short-term rates. The dollar was only modestly weaker on the announcement."

"Today is a very quiet one on the macro side, with no releases in the US. Yesterday, initial jobless claims snapped back higher to 226k after a prolonged decline. Continuing claims – which are a gauge of the difficulty to re-enter the workforce – spiked to 1974k, which is the highest since November 2021, and consistent with the narrative of a faster deterioration in the jobs market."

"We think DXY can stabilise around 98.0 today, given the lack of market drivers and proximity to Tuesday’s CPI release, but the bias remains bearish."

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