- The Russian currency picks up extra pace to sub-67.00 levels.
- Brent up move continues to sustain the demand for RUB.
- US-China trade talks spark a bout of generalized optimism.
The Russian Ruble is extending the rally so far this week and is now motivating USD/RUB to print multi-day lows in levels below the critical 67.00 the figure.
USD/RUB offered on oil advance
The continuation of the rally in crude oil prices is now lifting the barrel of Brent crude to fresh tops beyond the $58.00 milestone, giving extra support to the demand for the Russian currency and thus dragging spot to fresh 3-week lows.
Rising optimism over a positive outcome from the ongoing trade talks between the US and China in Beijing has been sustaining the broad-based upbeat sentiment in the risk-associated atmosphere.
In the US data universe, the NFIB index came in above estimates at 104.4 for the month of December while the more relevant JOLTs Job Openings dropped to 6.888 in November. Looking ahead, the American Petroleum Institute will publish its weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles later in the day.
What to look for around RUB
Brent dynamics should continue to be the main catalyst for the price action in the Ruble, while a close eye remains on the progress (or lack of it) of the US-China trade dispute (or potential agreement). In addition, the central bank will closely follow the performance of consumer prices and inflation expectations, where the CPI is seen edging higher during H2 to slowly converge towards the CBR’s target at 4.0% by year-end. The main risk facing RUB is the likeliness of further US sanctions against Russian citizens/companies or the domestic energy sector, which should seriously damage investor sentiment.
USD/RUB levels to watch
At the moment the pair is losing 1.20% at 66.92 and a break below 66.84 (55-day SMA) would aim for 65.43 (low Nov.22 2018) and finally 64.85 (low Oct.1 2018). On the flip side, the initial hurdle aligns at 67.74 (21-day SMA) seconded by 68.71 (10-day SMA) and then 69.94 (high Dec.29 2018).
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