USD/MXN Price Analysis: Plummets to six-year lows with sellers eyeing 17.50

The strong downtrend in USD/MXN continues as emerging market currencies advance against the US Dollar.
USD/MXN eyes 17.5000 support; bullish potential remains limited, with key resistance at 17.9492 and 18.2263.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The USD/MXN fell to fresh six-year lows of 17.7462, hit in the middle of the New York session even though the US economy revealed upbeat data, which failed to strengthen the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair is trading at 17.7480, down 0.92%.

A goodish employment report in the United States (US) improved market sentiment. Therefore, high beta currencies, alongside emerging markets peers, advanced sharply against their counterpart, the US Dollar.

USD/MXN Price Action

The USD/MXN pair remains in a strong downtrend, registering more than 9% losses from year-to-date (YTD). Notably, since the USD/MXN pair fell below the 19.00 figure, the USD/MXN has tested the level for ten days, though buyers could not crack it. In fact, traders remain short in the USD/MXN pair, even though speculations around the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) pausing its tightening cycle in May, have not triggered outflows from the emerging market currency.

Momentum indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), remain to push downwards, with space before turning oversold. The 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) shifted neutral and resumed to the downside as sellers stepped in. Therefore, the USD/MXN path of least resistance is downwards.

That said, the USD/MXN next support would be 17.5000. A breach of the latter will expose the July 2017 swing low of 17.4515 before dropping to 17.0000.

Conversely, if USD/MXN reclaims the May 5 daily high of 17.9492, that could form a bullish-engulfing candle pattern, which could warrant further upside. The buyer’s next stop would be 18.00, followed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 18.2263.

USD/MXN Daily Chart

USD/MXN

Overview
Today last price	17.7568
Today Daily Change	-0.1560
Today Daily Change %	-0.87
Today daily open	17.9128

Trends
Daily SMA20	18.0353
Daily SMA50	18.232
Daily SMA100	18.6088
Daily SMA200	19.2442

Levels
Previous Daily High	18.0358
Previous Daily Low	17.853
Previous Weekly High	18.2
Previous Weekly Low	17.9511
Previous Monthly High	18.4018
Previous Monthly Low	17.9329
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	17.9228
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	17.966
Daily Pivot Point S1	17.832
Daily Pivot Point S2	17.7511
Daily Pivot Point S3	17.6492
Daily Pivot Point R1	18.0147
Daily Pivot Point R2	18.1166
Daily Pivot Point R3	18.1975

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

GBP/USD clings to gains; US CPI in focus

The British Pound holds onto two-day gains marginally at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar during the Asian trading session. The GBP/USD pair remains firm as the British Pound outperforms despite financial markets pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England in the near term.

EUR/USD flat lines near mid-1.1500s as traders await US CPI amid Iran uncertainty

The EUR/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction, and holds steady around the 1.1545-1.1550 area during the Asian session. Traders seem hesitant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis and this week's release of the latest US inflation figures.

Gold stands firm above $4,400; inflation-driven Fed hike bets cap gains

Gold scales higher for the third consecutive day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to its highest level since June 5, around the $4,435 area during the Asian session on Tuesday. Friday's weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report pointed to signs of a cooling labor market and forced investors to scale back their expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin softens on institutional selling – CRV, ICP outperform

The broader cryptocurrency market shows mixed sentiment as Bitcoin (BTC) drops to $64,000 under institutional selling pressure. The Fear and Greed Index at 37, down from 40 the previous day, signals renewed bearish pressure. Meanwhile, Curve DAO (CRV) and Internet Computer (ICP) continue to extend their gains so far this week, emerging as top performers over the last 24 hours.

Dogecoin: Bullish divergence, whale accumulation support recovery hopes

Dogecoin shows early signs of a potential recovery, trading near $0.070 on Tuesday as bullish momentum divergence suggests selling pressure may be fading. In addition, whale accumulation and improving derivatives metrics suggest a bullish outlook, hinting at a potential recovery ahead.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.