USD mixed, havens bid ahead of tariffs – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is mixed and market sentiment is broadly weaker as investors seek havens ahead of Wednesday’s US tariff announcement. Asian stocks fell sharply overnight and European markets are lower, led by tariff-exposed companies. US equity futures are in the red, rounding off a miserable quarter for US markets. Bonds are broadly higher, while the JPY is outperforming its G10 peers and gold jumped to new high above $3127/oz as investors sought refuge from the anticipated fall out of the April 2nd tariff announcement, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. 

USD mixed as markets focus on April 2nd tariff announcement

"Details of the tariff plan remain vague and there have been signs recently that the administration was still debating how to proceed with tariff implementation. White House aide and trade hawk Navarro commented over the weekend that auto tariffs would raise USD100bn per year, with other tariffs raising and additional USD600bn/year—which would rather imply a very stiff, global tariff regime is set to be imposed." 

"While tariffs are the key focus for markets in the next few days, there are some important data updates due over the course of the week from the US—ISM and PMI data as well as Friday’s NFP report. Data may reflect sluggish growth momentum amid tariff uncertainty and raise US stagflation concerns across markets. While the USD is trading mixed on the session and off its early session low with high beta FX underperforming, headwinds are stiffening amid tariff risks." 

"The DXY fell back from last Wednesday’s high near 104.7 to close net lower on the week through Friday. Price action is leaning bearish overall for the DXY, with bearish momentum building across short-, medium– and long-term oscillators. In essence, the index is still consolidating after steadying from its mid-March low but the charts suggest renewed, broad USD losses are a risk if the DXY cracks consolidation support at 103.75."