USD/JPY reaches fresh monthly low, trades beneath 109.50

USD/JPY dip during the New York session, eyeing 109.00
Dampened market sentiment conditions favor the safe-haven Japanese yen.
The Volatility Index (VIX) is at four-month highs, triggering a significant sell-off in the US equity markets.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The USD/JPY is sliding in the day, down 0.50%, trading at 109.36 at the time of writing.

Risk-off market sentiment weighs on the USD/JPY pair

Global market sentiment remains downbeat. During the day, most Asian and European Indexes printed losses caused by concerns over a possible default of the Chinese real-estate giant Evergrande.

Evergrande’s spillover reached the US, as most stock indexes are losing between 2.39% and almost 3%. The Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “fear” index, reaches a four-month high, sitting at 27.53, raising 31%.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of six peers against the greenback, is flat in the session, at 93.27. The US 10-year Treasury yield is plummeting six basis points, sitting at the 1.309% threshold weighing on the USD/JPY pair.

As there is no medium to high-impact data released on both countries in the day, the USD/JPY main driver would be market sentiment and the US 10-year benchmark rate.

Later on the week, on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will announce their monetary policy decisions.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, the USD/JPY is trading below the shorter time-frame moving averages, suggesting that the pair is under selling pressure. A daily close beneath 109.50 could pave the way for further losses. The first support level on the downside would be 109.00. In case of a breach of the latter, the USD/JPY bears could push the price to the August 4 low at 108.71. A crucial break of that support would expose the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 108.11.

On the flip side, a daily close above the confluence of the 50 and the 100 DMA’s around 109.85-90 could expose 110.00. If a break above 110.00, the bulls could push the USD/JPY pair towards the August 11 high at 110.79.

The Relative Strength Index is at 43.43, slightly lower, favoring the USD/JPY bears.

KEY LEVELS TO WATCH

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	109.36
Today Daily Change	-0.55
Today Daily Change %	-0.50
Today daily open	109.91

Trends
Daily SMA20	109.88
Daily SMA50	109.91
Daily SMA100	109.85
Daily SMA200	108.1

Levels
Previous Daily High	110.08
Previous Daily Low	109.67
Previous Weekly High	110.16
Previous Weekly Low	109.11
Previous Monthly High	110.8
Previous Monthly Low	108.72
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	109.92
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	109.83
Daily Pivot Point S1	109.69
Daily Pivot Point S2	109.47
Daily Pivot Point S3	109.28
Daily Pivot Point R1	110.11
Daily Pivot Point R2	110.3
Daily Pivot Point R3	110.52

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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