|

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Slumps from weekly highs as bearish-engulfing candle pattern looms

  • USD/JPY trades with losses, ending its five-day gain amid a falling US Dollar and risk-averse mood.
  • A daily close below 138.17 could drive the pair further down, with 138.00 as the primary support.
  • USD/JPY needs to retake the 138.00 level to regain upward momentum, with resistances at 138.17 and 139.00.

USD/JPY forms a bearish-engulfing candlestick pattern, snapping five days of gains, down almost 0.60%, after hitting a weekly high of 138.74. Risk-off and a weaker US Dollar (USD), weighed on the USD/JPY pair. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 137.90, below its opening price.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY remains upward biased, but a bearish candlestick formation could open the door for further losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator remains in bullish territory but aims lower, which could put a lid on the USD/JPY fall. However, if USD/JPY achieves a daily close below the December 15 daily low of 138.17, that would exert downward pressure on the pair.

In that outcome, the USD/JPY first support would be 138.00. A breach of the latter will expose the May 18 daily low of 137.28, followed by the May 17 swing low at 136.30.

The USD/JPY must claim the 138.00 figure for a bullish resumption. Once done, the next resistance would be the December 15 high of 138.17, followed by the 139.00 figure. A rally above the latter will expose the November 30 high at 139.89, before challenging the 140.00 figure.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily chart

USD/JPY Daily chart

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price137.89
Today Daily Change-0.82
Today Daily Change %-0.59
Today daily open138.71
 
Trends
Daily SMA20135.38
Daily SMA50133.8
Daily SMA100133.07
Daily SMA200137.1
 
Levels
Previous Daily High138.75
Previous Daily Low137.29
Previous Weekly High135.77
Previous Weekly Low133.74
Previous Monthly High136.56
Previous Monthly Low130.63
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%138.19
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%137.85
Daily Pivot Point S1137.75
Daily Pivot Point S2136.79
Daily Pivot Point S3136.29
Daily Pivot Point R1139.21
Daily Pivot Point R2139.71
Daily Pivot Point R3140.66

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates near 0.7000 as USD stays weak

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during Thursday’s Asian session, consolidating the previous day’s recovery gains from a near three-week low as the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections and Iran diplomacy hopes continue to weigh on the US Dollar. Bulls, however, seem hesitant as focus shifts to Friday’s crucial US NFP report.

USD/JPY drifts lower to 158.25 on hawkish BoJ Minutes, weak USD

USD/JPY trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Thursday as hawkish BoJ Minutes, showing members agreed to keep raising rates, and intervention risks support the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, US midterm election results and hopes for Iran diplomacy keep the US Dollar depressed as focus shifts to Friday’s US NFP report.

Gold consolidates near two-week top as modest USD bounce and Fed hike bets cap upside

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating its strong weekly gains, trading above $4,100 through the first half of the European session, close to a two-week high set earlier this Thursday.

TRUMP token hits record low amid mounting selling pressure

Ripple and Stellar extend their recovery as bearish pressure begins to ease for both altcoins. XRP trades above $1.30 after breaking above the upper trendline of a falling channel pattern, while XLM holds above $0.168 and approaches resistance at $0.173. Meanwhile, improving derivatives metrics and strengthening momentum indicators hint at a potential for further recovery.

BoE expected to hike interest rate to 4.00%

The Bank of England is set to reveal its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday, coinciding with its seventh rate-setting meeting of 2026. Market analysts expect the ‘Old Lady’ to increase its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.00%, the highest level since November 2025.

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress
The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.