USD/JPY Price Analysis: Remains depressed near 109.30-25 area ahead of US data

  • USD/JPY edged lower for the second straight day amid renewed USD selling bias.
  • Any meaningful decline might find decent support near the 108.80 confluence.
  • A sustained move beyond the 109.65-70 area is needed to confirm additional gains.

The USD/JPY pair struggled to capitalize on its early uptick, instead met with some fresh supply near the 109.65 region and turned lower for the second consecutive session on Friday. The pair remained on the defensive through the mid-European session and was last seen trading around the 109.35-30 region, down over 0.10% for the day.

Retreating US Treasury bond yields – amid dovish Fed expectations – acted as a headwind for the US dollar and exerted some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. That said, a generally positive tone around the global equity markets undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and helped limit any further losses, at least for now.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair stalled this week's goodish rebound from the 108.35 region near a resistance marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 110.97-107.48 downfall. The mentioned area should now act as a key pivotal point for traders and help determine the next leg of a directional move.

Meanwhile, the downside remained limited and the USD/JPY pair, so far, has managed to hold its neck above the 109.20-15 confluence support. This comprises 50% Fibo. level and 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and turn the pair vulnerable to slide further.

The next relevant support is pegged near the 109.00 mark ahead of the 108.80 region, marking the 38.2% Fibo. level. The latter coincides with the lower boundary of a near four-week-old ascending channel. Sustained weakness below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for a further depreciating move.

On the flip side, the 109.65-70 region might continue to act as immediate strong resistance. Some follow-through buying beyond the weekly swing highs, around the 109.80 level, has the potential to lift the USD/JPY pair further beyond the key 110.00 psychological mark, towards the trend-channel hurdle, currently around the 110.35-40 area.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 109.32
Today Daily Change -0.16
Today Daily Change % -0.15
Today daily open 109.48
Daily SMA20 108.74
Daily SMA50 109.06
Daily SMA100 106.85
Daily SMA200 105.95
Previous Daily High 109.78
Previous Daily Low 109.41
Previous Weekly High 109.7
Previous Weekly Low 108.34
Previous Monthly High 110.85
Previous Monthly Low 107.48
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 109.55
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 109.64
Daily Pivot Point S1 109.33
Daily Pivot Point S2 109.18
Daily Pivot Point S3 108.95
Daily Pivot Point R1 109.71
Daily Pivot Point R2 109.93
Daily Pivot Point R3 110.08



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