USD/JPY Price Analysis: Rebounds from multi-month lows, lacks follow-through

  • USD/JPY staged a modest bounce from multi-month lows amid extremely oversold conditions.
  • The lack of follow-through suggests that the near-term bearish bias is still far from being over.
  • Bears might now wait for a sustained breakthrough the 104.00 mark before placing fresh bets.

The USD/JPY pair recovered around 70 pips from multi-month lows and refreshed daily tops, around the 104.85 region in the last hour.

Extremely oversold conditions on short-term charts turned out to be a key factor behind the pair's modest intraday short-covering move. This coupled with a positive move in the US equity futures further undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and remained supportive.

The uptick, however, lacked any strong follow-through and remained capped below the key 105.00 psychological mark. The pair's inability to capitalize on the attempted bounce clearly suggests that the near-term bearish pressure might still be far from being over.

That said, a sustained breakthrough the 105.00 mark might prompt some additional short-covering and lift the pair further towards an intermediate resistance near the 105.65-70 region. Bulls might then aim to test weekly swing highs resistance near the 106.00-106.10 area.

On the flip side, the 104.20-15 region now seems to protect the immediate downside. Subsequent weakness below the 104.00 mark will reinforce the near-term bearish outlook and turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide further towards challenging the 103.00 mark.

USD/JPY daily chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 104.65
Today Daily Change -0.08
Today Daily Change % -0.08
Today daily open 104.73
Daily SMA20 106.69
Daily SMA50 107.25
Daily SMA100 107.57
Daily SMA200 108.27
Previous Daily High 105.3
Previous Daily Low 104.68
Previous Weekly High 107.54
Previous Weekly Low 105.68
Previous Monthly High 109.85
Previous Monthly Low 106.08
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 104.92
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 105.06
Daily Pivot Point S1 104.51
Daily Pivot Point S2 104.29
Daily Pivot Point S3 103.9
Daily Pivot Point R1 105.12
Daily Pivot Point R2 105.52
Daily Pivot Point R3 105.74



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