USD/JPY Price Analysis: Flirts with 100-hour EMA/ascending trend-line confluence, near 128.00

USD/JPY witnessed some selling on Monday, though the downtick lacked bearish conviction.
Weakness below the 100-hour SMA/ascending trend-line could stall near the 23.6% Fibo. level.
Sustained move back above the 129.00 mark will set the stage for an extension of the bullish trend.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair edged lower on the first day of a new week, albeit lacked follow-through selling and remained well within Friday's broader trading range. The pair traded with a mild negative bias through the first half of the European session and was last seen hovering around the 100-hour EMA, just above the 128.00 round-figure mark.

The prevalent risk-off mood drove some haven flows and benefitted the Japanese yen, which, in turn, acted as a headwind for spot prices. Bearish traders further took cues from a further pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, though the Fed-BoJ policy divergence helped limit any deeper losses for the USD/JPY pair, at least for now.

From a technical perspective, bulls are trying to defend support marked by ascending trend-line support extending from the monthly low. This is followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 121.28-129.41 parabolic rise, which stalled last week's sharp corrective pullback from the 129.40 area, or a fresh 20-year high.

The latter should act as a pivotal point for short-term traders and help determine the next leg of a directional move. A convincing breakthrough should pave the way for deeper losses and drag the USD/JPY pair towards the 127.00 mark, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall to test the 126.35 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. level.

On the flip side, the 128.40 region now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 129.00-129.10 region. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the corrective slide has run its course and lift the USD/JPY pair back towards the two-decade peak, around the 129.40 area. The momentum could then allow bulls to reclaim the 130.00 psychological mark.

USD/JPY 1-hour chart

Key levels to watch

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	128.08
Today Daily Change	-0.38
Today Daily Change %	-0.30
Today daily open	128.46

Trends
Daily SMA20	125.02
Daily SMA50	120.15
Daily SMA100	117.38
Daily SMA200	114.51

Levels
Previous Daily High	129.11
Previous Daily Low	127.74
Previous Weekly High	129.41
Previous Weekly Low	126.24
Previous Monthly High	125.1
Previous Monthly Low	114.65
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	128.59
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	128.26
Daily Pivot Point S1	127.76
Daily Pivot Point S2	127.06
Daily Pivot Point S3	126.39
Daily Pivot Point R1	129.14
Daily Pivot Point R2	129.81
Daily Pivot Point R3	130.51

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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