USD/JPY Long-term trend: Neutral to Negative - Commerzbank

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

Will the bullish outside day reversal from 61.8 Fib support translate into long-term trend reversal in USD/JPY?

Commerzbank Analyst Karen Jones sees little scope for long-term trend bullish trend reversal and expects the rally to fail at 114.38/82 major resistance. Jones writes-

"Initial resistance lies at 111.73/112.05 (200 day ma). Above here lies the 113.64/75 December highs. There is a lot of resistance directly overhead – namely the 113.92 2015-2018 downtrend line. Above here sits the 114.38/82 major resistance, we continue to favour failure."

Failure at 114.38/82 would keep the long-term neutral to negative outlook intact. Also, a rise to 114.38/82 is easier said than done as spot would need to chew through multiple hurdles lined up at 111.73/112.05 (200 day ma) and 113.92 (2015-2018 downtrend line).

As of writing, the pair is trading at 111.15 - down 0.13 percent on the day. USD found bids in Asia but the positive follow-through to yesterday's bullish outside day candle ran into offers abov111.41 (38.2% Fib R of Jan. 8 high - Jan. 17 low).

	TREND INDEX	OB/OS INDEX	VOLATILY INDEX
15M	Strongly Bearish	Neutral	Expanding
1H	Bearish	Neutral	Expanding
4H	Bearish	Neutral	Expanding
1D	Bullish	Neutral	High
1W	Bearish	Oversold	Low
Updated Jan 18, 08:15 GMT

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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