USD/JPY: Global inflation outlook and US treasury yields – Danske Bank

Matías Salord FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair is about to end the week hovering around 136.50/80, near the same level it had a week ago. Analysts from Danske Bank forecast the pair at 137 in a month, at 139 in three months, and then to move lower, reaching 128 in twelve months.

Key Quotes:

“Upside risks to USD/JPY come from a continued pressure for higher global yields, although intervention will likely cap sudden moves higher. If global slowdown turns into a more severe recession and speculators unwind short JPY positions, flatter yield curves and cheaper energy can quickly become a tailwind for JPY.”

“The key driver of USD/JPY remains the global inflation outlook and US treasury yields. Following the lower than expected US October and November CPI prints, JPY has strengthened quite significantly but remains weak in a historical perspective. With the US labour market still in good shape, we continue to see a pressure on Fed to tighten further and elevated energy prices will weigh on the JPY in the short term. Looking further ahead, we do expect a stronger JPY.”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

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