USD/JPY drifts lower, nears 147.00 ahead of US GDP, Tokyo CPI data

The US Dollar extends losses on Wednesday amid higher hopes of Fed easing.
Fed Williams opened the door to a rate cut in September and sent the US Dollar lower across the board.
Tokyo CPI numbers, due later today, and Friday's US PCE Prices Index will set the USD/JPY's near-term direction.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The US Dollar is extending its reversal from Wednesday’s highs above 148.00 to levels near the 147.00 round figure on Thursday, with the Greenback on its back foot ahead of the release of US Gross Domestic Product and Weekly Jobless Claims figures, due later today.

The US Dollar featured a knee-jerk reaction on Wednesday, following comments by New York Fed president, John Williams, at a CNBC interview, where the central banker fueled hopes of the Fed easing further.

Williams stated that interest rates are currently at restrictive levels and will likely decrease at some point. More interesting was his comment affirming that all Fed monetary policy meetings are “live” on rates, which was taken by the market as a hint to a September rate cut.

Tokyo CPI and US PCE Price Index in focus

On the macroeconomic front, the US Q2 GDP is expected to be revised up to 3.1% annualised growth, from the previous 3.0% estimation, while Jobless Claims are seen dropping to 230,000 from 235,000 last week.

In Japan, the focus will be on the August Tokyo CPI index, which will be analysed with special attention to assess the odds for the BoJ tightening in September, an option that is gaining ground after recent comments from Governor Ueda, warning about the inflationary trend in wages.

The highlight of the week, however, is Friday’s US PCE Prices Index release. The Fed’s favourite inflation indicators are expected to show that headline inflation remained steady, growing at a 2.6% yearly rate in July, while the core inflation accelerated to 2.9% last month, from 2.8% in June.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product Annualized

The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

Economic Indicator

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD clings to small gains near 1.1750

Following a short-lasting correction in the early European session, EUR/USD regains its traction and clings to moderate gains at around 1.1750 on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low, with investors awaiting this weeks key data releases from the US and the ECB policy announcements.

GBP/USD remains confined in a range above mid-1.3300s ahead of UK jobs report

The GBP/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades around the 1.3370-1.3365 region, nearly unchanged for the day. Traders seem reluctant and opt to wait for this week's important macro releases and the key central bank event risk before placing fresh directional bets.

Gold defends $4,300 as focus shifts to US NFP, PMI data

Gold price holds the $4,300 level, easing from the highest since October 21 in the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal stays afloat on further US Federal Reserve rate cut bets. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report will take center stage later on Tuesday. Also, the US Retail Sales and Purchasing Managers Index will be published.

Top Crypto Losers: Aster, Midnight, and Ethena extend losses as selling pressure mounts

Aster, Midnight, and Ethena are the altcoins with the most losses over the last 24 hours, as the broader cryptocurrency market weakens amid Bitcoin dropping below $86,000.

NFP preview: Complex data release will determine if Fed was right to cut rates

The long wait is over, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US will release nonfarm payrolls reports for both November and October at 1330 GMT on Tuesday. The overall NFP figure for October is expected to be -10k, however, it is expected to be influenced by a massive 130k drop in federal department workers.

Solana Price Forecast: SOL consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana (SOL) price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout.