USD/JPY: Any advance is likely part of a higher range of 149.20/150.15 – UOB Group

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Further US Dollar (USD) strength is not ruled out, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 149.20/150.15. In the longer run, USD could rise further to 150.15, with lesser odds of reaching 150.90, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD might rise further to 150.15

24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected USD to 'trade in a range between 148.20 and 149.15.' However, instead of trading in a range, USD surged, reaching a high of 149.92. Further USD strength is not ruled out. However, with negative divergence forming, combined with deeply overbought conditions, suggest that any advance is likely part of a higher range of 149.20/150.15."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After USD rose to a high of 148.91 two days ago, we highlighted yesterday that 'while the renewed upward momentum suggests USD could reach 149.15, it is currently unclear whether it could continue to rise toward the next major resistance at 149.55.' We did not expect USD to then surpass both levels, as it surged to a high of 149.92. The sharp rally over the past couple of days appears excessive, but with no sign of slowing just yet, USD could rise further to 150.15, with lesser odds of reaching the major resistance at 150.90. To sustain the overbought momentum, USD must hold above the ‘strong support’ at 148.50 (level was at 147.70 yesterday)."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data

The British Pound is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran.

EUR/USD challenges 1.1500 on Dollar’s recovery

EUR/USD now accelerates its downtrend and comes closer to the 1.1500 level on Monday. The pair’s correction follows the decent improvement in the US Dollar amid solid data US releases and easing concerns on the geopolitical front.

Gold: The $4,000 mark holds the downside for now

Gold adds to Friday’s pullback, although it remains well underpinned by the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce on Monday. The US Dollar’s inconclusive price action seems enough to cap the yellow metal’s potential upside, although renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading expectations of a Fed rate hike could limit the Greenback’s recovery.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

The Bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes

Once a goldmine for carry traders, Bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February. Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting Bitcoin futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.