USD/INR Price News: Rupee hovers near fortnight top with eyes on India PM Modi, US data

USD/INR stays pressured at the lowest level in two weeks.
Dashing hopes of further easy money policies from RBI, comparatively better virus conditions favor INR bulls.
Global markets remain mixed after the recent risk-on mood.
India PM Modi to unveil Omicron battle plan, US Durable Goods Orders, PCE Inflation for November will decorate calendar.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/INR pauses four-day downtrend around a fortnight low near 75.45 during early Thursday. The Indian rupee (INR) pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the mixed market sentiment and cautious mood ahead of the key US data, as well as a speech from Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi.

Risk appetite grew stronger the previous day amid optimism concerning US President Joe Biden's Build Back Better (BBB) stimulus plan and studies showing that infection with Omicron is significantly less likely to result in hospitalization keep the buyers hopeful.

Also negative for the USD/INR prices were comments from Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee member Jayanth Varma. "I believe that monetary policy is no longer the right instrument to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic whose economic effects (as opposed to its health effects) have diminished greatly and become more concentrated in narrow pockets of the economy," Varma said at the MPC meeting, according to minutes of the meet released by the RBI, shared by Reuters.

On the same line were hawkish forecasts from Nomura which expect 100 basis points (bps) of repo and reverse repo rate hikes in 2022, as well as a 25 bps repo hike in April policy.

However, China’s biggest-ever lockdown in Xi’an and the White House doubts over the availability of Pfizer’s pill, joined by French rejection to Merck’s COVID-19 drug, challenge the market sentiment.

It’s worth noting that a light calendar and cautious mood before the aforementioned catalysts also probe the mood and restrict USD/INR moves.

Against this backdrop, US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 1.457% after declining for the first time in three days on Wednesday whereas the S&P 500 Futures struggle to copy the Wall Street’s gains, up 0.05% around 4,687 by the press time.

Moving on, comments from India PM Modi are likely to boost the market confidence and can exert additional downside pressure on the USD/INR. However, firmer US data and fresh challenges to the market’s risk appetite may help the pair to consolidate recent losses.

Technical analysis

In addition to a clear downside break of 75.65-60 support-turned-resistance area comprising tops marked in April and October, a daily closing below 20-DMA level of 75.54 also favors USD/INR bears to aim for tops marked in November around 75.20.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	75.449
Today Daily Change	-0.0126
Today Daily Change %	-0.02%
Today daily open	75.4616

Trends
Daily SMA20	75.4932
Daily SMA50	74.9711
Daily SMA100	74.5046
Daily SMA200	74.1807

Levels
Previous Daily High	75.929
Previous Daily Low	75.4317
Previous Weekly High	76.5958
Previous Weekly Low	75.556
Previous Monthly High	75.1908
Previous Monthly Low	73.8515
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	75.6217
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	75.7391
Daily Pivot Point S1	75.2859
Daily Pivot Point S2	75.1102
Daily Pivot Point S3	74.7886
Daily Pivot Point R1	75.7832
Daily Pivot Point R2	76.1047
Daily Pivot Point R3	76.2804

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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