- USD/INR struggles to keep rebound from two-week low.
- India vaccinates 1.0 billion population, US stimulus in the pipeline.
- US Treasury yields fail to underpin greenback strength despite Fed tapering chatters.
USD/INR fades bounce off a fortnight low, mildly bid around 74.87 heading into Thursday’s European session. The Indian rupee (INR) pair snaps two-day downtrend despite firmer fundamentals from India, the reason could be linked to the broad US dollar weakness.
India officially vaccinated over 1.0 billion people and takes a sigh of relief from the pandemic risk, at least for now. In addition to the strong jabbing, recent declines in the COVID-19 numbers and the virus-led data also favor the INR bulls. As per the latest data, coronavirus fatalities eased from 197 to 160 whereas the active cases dropped the most in a day since March the previous day.
On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fails to benefit from the consolidation in the market sentiment, printing a seven-day downtrend to a fresh three-week low near 93.50 by the press time. That being said, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firm around 1.67%, up three basis points (bps) to refresh the highest levels since May.
It should be noted that Evergrande’s ability to secure a one-month extension to the defaulted $260 million bond contrasts trade-off risk emanating from China’s property stress cited by the global rating agency Fitch to confuse traders. Tapering signals from Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester have been the latest to pump the US 10-year Treasury yields.
As a result, USD/INR traders should wait for a clear direction and hence Friday’s preliminary reading of October’s activity numbers will be the key catalysts to watch.
Technical analysis
Unless crossing a seven-day-old descending resistance line near 75.15, USD/INR bears remain directed towards an upward sloping support line from early September, around 74.50 by the press time.
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