USD/INR remains firm as higher oil prices, Fed policy awaited

The Indian Rupee underperforms against the US Dollar amid elevated oil prices.
US-Iran diplomacy stalemate keeps oil prices higher.
FIIs continue to exert selling pressure in the Indian stock market.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The Indian Rupee (INR) holds onto weekly losses against the US Dollar (USD) at open on Monday. The USD/INR pair trades firmly near 94.30 as elevated oil prices, strong demand for US Dollars by importers, and escalating sell-off by overseas investors in the Indian stock market are acting as major headwinds for the Indian Rupee.

Iran delivers new proposal on Hormuz reopening

The WTI Oil price is marginally positive around $93.60 in the Asian trade on Monday as the United States (US)-Iran diplomacy remains at a stalemate, following Washington’s refusal to visit Islamabad for another round of peace talks.

Following the cancellation of US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's visit to Islamabad, President Donald Trump clarified that Washington is available on the phone and doesn’t want to waste time taking an 18-hour flight for unproductive talks, Axios reported.

US President Trump added that the counteroffer by Iran's foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, received through Pakistan, was not good enough, and Washington has all the cards. Trump confirmed that the diplomatic stalemate doesn’t mean the war will resume.

Earlier in the day, a report by Axios showed that Iran has given a new proposal to the US on reopening of the Strait ⁠of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, and the ending of the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a ‌later ⁠stage.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Meanwhile, stubbornly high oil prices have increased demand for US Dollars by Indian importers, which is also weighing heavily on the Indian Rupee.

FIIs remain dumping their stake in Indian stock market

There seems to be a significant increase in the selling pressure by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian stock market amid stalled US-Iran peace talks. On Friday, FIIs offloaded their stake worth Rs. 8,827.87 crore, which was higher than the combined selling amount of Rs. 8,311.99 crore being recorded in the first four trading days of the previous week.

Foreign investors remain cautious over the India Inc. earnings outlook, amid fears that higher oil prices would hit the operating margins of various companies badly.

Investors await the Fed's policy

This week, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% for the third time in a row. The Fed is expected to warn of upside inflation risks and downside economic risks amidst elevated energy prices.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades firmly above 20-day EMA

USD/INR trades firmly at around 94.30 as of writing, keeping a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 93.42. The pair is pressing near recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 suggests positive but not extreme momentum, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand while conditions remain short of overbought territory.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 93.42, which acts as the primary dynamic floor and would need to give way to signal a deeper correction. As long as USD/INR holds above this level, pullbacks are likely to be viewed as corrective within the broader uptrend, with bulls looking to defend that moving average on dips and extend the advance towards the all-time high around 95.20.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).

EUR/USD looks well bid above 1.1600

EUR/USD extends its recovery and climbs back above the 1.1600 mark in quite an auspicious start to the week. Improved risk appetite following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the US Dollar, lending support to the risk complex. Looking ahead, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

GBP/USD climbs to multi-day highs around 1.3460

GBP/USD remains comfortably in positive territory north of 1.3400 the figure on Monday. Cable continues to draw support from an improvement in market sentiment after reports that the US and Iran have reached a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold extends the recovery, targets $4,400

Gold rallies on Monday and climbs well above the $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The precious metal benefits from renewed selling pressure on the Greenback as investors reassess the implications of the US-Iran agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants now turn their attention to Wednesday's FOMC gathering.