USD: Data tests before tariffs – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The currency market caught up with the tariff threat at the start of this week, with the dollar stronger across the board, the yen supported, and high-beta currencies under pressure. Again, the big underperformers have been AUD and NZD, likely on the view that China will remain a big focus of US protectionism, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

DXY can move above 104.50 before the big announcement

"Despite yesterday’s moves, the dollar has plenty of room to rally should tomorrow’s tariff announcement surprise on the hawkish (risk-negative) side, but remains at risk of data-led downside pressure."

"The US macro calendar will have a big say on today’s FX moves, but if we don’t see any data surprise we would not fight the dollar’s tentative recovery, as the latest comments from the US administration are quelling hopes for a lenient tariff announcement tomorrow. We could see DXY move above 104.50 before tomorrow’s big announcement."

"JOLTS job openings for February are expected to show a moderate decline to 7.6 million today, with some focus also on the layoff figures. The ISM manufacturing index for March is expected to drop back below 50.0, mirroring the deterioration in sentiment in the sector given tariff uncertainty."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.