USD/CHF moves below 0.95 but the market could still turn higher

USD/CHF 4-hour chart

There have been some very interesting moves in the safe-haven currencies of late. Both the Swiss franc and Japanese yen moved sharply lower a few days before the stock market sell-off toward the end of last week. This move proceeded the bearishness in stock markets and now at the start of the week, the indices have moved higher and so has USD/CHF. Gold moves have been capped by the strength in the US dollar so this could mean the real move is into cash, specifically the greenback.

If this is the case, then this retracement back down on Monday could just be a small pullback before the reversal to the upside really gathers some momentum. Looking at the MACD this confirms the theory as the histogram has turned green. The main signal for trend, however, is the lagging signal lines. If the signal lines push up through the mid-level then it could be a good sign for the dollar bulls. 

The reason why this USD/CHF move is interesting is the fact that traders and investors would normally move into safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc when equities move lower. It seems in times of distress (as mentioned above) the dollar is the safe haven of choice or the market needs it to meet redemptions and for margin.

This is a chance for wave analysts to catch the higher low wave if it is the case. On the upside, the key resistance zones to watch are 0.9550 and the stubborn 55 Exponential Moving Average. If these levels break then it is game on for the bulls. 

Additional levels