USD/CHF holds ground near 0.7950 as Swiss Real Retail Sales miss forecasts

USD/CHF remains firm as Swiss retail sales rose 2.3% YoY, below forecasts but above the prior reading.
The Swiss Franc may strengthen amid escalating Russia–Ukraine tensions.
The US Dollar rises on safe-haven demand amid heightened US–Venezuela tensions.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/CHF remains firm following the weaker-than-expected Swiss Real Retail Sales, which rose 2.3% year-over-year in November, falling short of the expected 2.9% but coming above the prior 2.2% increase (revised from 2.7% increase). The pair is hovering around 0.7940 during the European hours on Monday.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) may gain ground against the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating Ukraine-Russian tensions. Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine has targeted Moscow with drones daily in 2026 so far, marking an escalation from earlier sporadic attacks. Russian air defences destroyed 57 drones over the Moscow region by Sunday midnight, out of 437 intercepted nationwide. Ukraine has not commented, but Kyiv has increasingly used long-range drones to strike deep inside Russia, per The Guardian.

The Greenback advances on safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to the renewed geopolitical tensions following the United States’ (US) capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Focus will be shifted toward the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data due later in the North American session.

CNN reported over the weekend that the US President Donald Trump administration launched a “large-scale strike against Venezuela” and detained President Maduro to face charges, without congressional approval. Trump said the US would administer Venezuela until a safe, orderly, and judicious transition is achieved.

The Guardian reported on Monday that President Trump warned Washington could launch a new military intervention if Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, fails to meet US demands. He also made remarks about Colombia’s leadership, floated the idea of “Operation Colombia,” criticized Mexico for not getting its act together, and suggested Cuba appeared close to collapse.

Economic Indicator

Real Retail Sales (YoY)

The Retail Sales data, released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on a monthly basis, measures the volume of goods sold by retailers in Switzerland. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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