USD/CAD to extend its fall below 1.2540 after another blowout for Canadian employment – TDS

The Canadian labour market continues to make substantial progress in the recovery towards pre-COVID employment levels with another 303K jobs added back in March. The CAD benefited more on the crosses than vs USD/CAD. Despite some waning momentum, there isn't a compelling catalyst to upset CAD resilience until the April Bank of Canada’s meeting, as reported by TD Securities.

Another gangbusters print for Canadian jobs adds to the broader narrative of what has been much better data than the BoC has been expecting

“The labour market added 303K jobs in March, more than triple the consensus estimate of 100K. Most of the job gains were in services and April lockdowns imply a significant reversal in store next month. Still, with hours worked 2% higher and the unemployment rate dropping 7.5% this is an exceptionally strong piece of data.”

“The CAD hasn't shown much deference to domestic data surprises, but instead shown much greater sensitivity to global factors (like NA/US outperformance and reflation proxies). That said, another solid data print in Canada certainly doesn't hurt the CAD.” 

“Though momentum has waned, it's not evidently clear that CAD has a reason to weaken particularly as there isn't a compelling catalyst to upset the risk apple cart.”

“The upcoming April MPR will be a worthy event risk for the CAD, so we are inclined to see the CAD perform reasonably well until then.”

“USD/CAD faces notable daily 'uptrend' support near 1.2540/50 (from the mid-March lows) that if convincingly broken should expose the figure and more below. But, given some uncertainty over USD direction, better prospects may lie on the crosses like EUR/CAD and CAD/antipodes.”