USD/CAD remains subdued below 200 & 50DMAs in low 1.2600s with focus on upcoming risk events

In a subdued, holiday-thinned start to the trading week, USD/CAD has traded in thin ranges just above the 1.2600 level.
Higher oil prices have prevented the pair from being lifted above its 200 and 50DMAs by the buoyant buck.
Focus this week will be on Fed Chair Powell’s Thursday speech and on Wednesday Canadian CPI figures.

Joel Frank Independent Analyst

In a subdued start to the trading week with many market participants still away for Easter holiday celebrations and key market closures in Europe and some Asia Pacific regions, USD/CAD has traded in thin ranges just above the 1.2600 level. The pair has been supported by broad strength in the US dollar amid buoyancy in US yields as traders price in a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle and, at current levels in the 1.2610s, trades a modest 0.1% higher.

A sharp rise in global oil prices as a result of pessimism regarding a potential Russo-Ukraine peace deal as fighting intensifies as well as OPEC supply concerns amid new outages in Libya has prevented the pair from breaking above its 200 and 50-Day Moving Averages at the 1.2623 and 1.2653 levels. For now, these technical levels look likely to prevent the pair from testing last week’s peaks in the 1.2675 area.

A key focus for USD/CAD traders this week will be on whether key trends established on Monday continue through the week; i.e. can oil and the US dollar continue recent upside momentum. Regarding the latter, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking at this week’s IMF/World Bank meetings on Thursday and is expected to solidify expectations for 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming Fed meetings.

Whilst this does present an upside risk to USD/CAD, Canadian March Consumer Price Inflation figures are due on Wednesday. If they show a 0.9% MoM rise in the headline price index, as expected, this should solidify expectations that the BoC will follow up last week’s 50 bps rate hike (which took rates to 1.0%) at its next meeting in June. The BoC’s relatively hawkish stance should thus be enough to shield the loonie from the buck’s advances, for now.

USD/Cad

Overview
Today last price	1.2613
Today Daily Change	-0.0002
Today Daily Change %	-0.02
Today daily open	1.2615

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2549
Daily SMA50	1.2657
Daily SMA100	1.2687
Daily SMA200	1.2626

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2621
Previous Daily Low	1.259
Previous Weekly High	1.2676
Previous Weekly Low	1.2521
Previous Monthly High	1.2901
Previous Monthly Low	1.243
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2609
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2602
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2596
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2578
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2565
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2628
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.264
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2659

Author

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

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