USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trades strongly ahead of US/Canada employment data
- USD/CAD jumps to near 1.4073 in the countdown to the US/Canada employment data for October.
- The US Dollar outperforms due to global sell-off in AI infrastructure stocks.
- Canadian laborforce is expected to have seen addition of fresh 13.6K workers in October.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces a significant selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. In the European trade, the USD/CAD pair is up 0.45% higher to near 1.4073.
The Loonie pair strengthens as the US Dollar outperforms ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.35% higher to near 101.95. The USD Index strengthens as its safe-haven demand has improved due to global Artificial Intelligence (AI) rout.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.38% | 0.43% | 0.24% | 0.42% | 0.78% | 0.91% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.38% | 0.05% | -0.14% | 0.06% | 0.40% | 0.53% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | -0.43% | -0.05% | -0.19% | 0.00% | 0.35% | 0.48% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.19% | 0.54% | 0.67% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.42% | -0.06% | -0.00% | -0.19% | 0.35% | 0.47% | -0.25% | |
| AUD | -0.78% | -0.40% | -0.35% | -0.54% | -0.35% | 0.13% | -0.59% | |
| NZD | -0.91% | -0.53% | -0.48% | -0.67% | -0.47% | -0.13% | -0.71% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.20% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.25% | 0.59% | 0.71% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
TD sees subdued US jobs growth but flags upside risks
According to TD Securities, October US nonfarm payrolls are likely to remain soft, with economists looking for headline jobs growth to come in at “40k after job gains moderated to 29k in September.” The bank notes that, “despite the subdued, below-consensus print, our forecast would be within the range of breakeven job gains and result in an increase in the three-month moving average.” At the same time, TD stresses that “risks to our payrolls forecast are to the upside,” suggesting the eventual outcome could exceed their baseline call.
Investors also await the Canadian labor market data for October, which will be published alongside the US NFP data.
Canadian employers are expected to have hired 13.6K fresh workers after firing 68.3K employees in September. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 6.5%.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
In the four-hour chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.4071, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.4000 and above the key Fibonacci retracements at 1.4017 (50.0%) and 1.3950 (61.8%). The Relative Strength Index (14) has pushed into overbought territory near 71.6, suggesting the latest advance could be stretched even as the broader structure remains supported on dips.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.4084, with further barriers at the 23.6% level at 1.4167 and the recent Fibonacci anchor higher near 1.4302 if bullish momentum extends. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50.0% retracement at 1.4017, followed closely by the 20-period EMA at 1.4000; a deeper pullback would expose the 61.8% retracement at 1.3950, while the 1.3733 Fibonacci base represents a more distant structural floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Net Change in Employment
The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Nov 06, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 13.6K
Previous: -68.3K
Source: Statistics Canada
Canada’s labor market statistics tend to have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar, with the Employment Change figure carrying most of the weight. There is a significant correlation between the amount of people working and consumption, which impacts inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, in turn moving the C$. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be CAD bullish, with currency markets usually reacting steadily and consistently in response to the publication.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
