USD/CAD Price Analysis: Slides further below 1.2500 mark, fresh three-year lows

  • USD/CAD continued losing ground through the first half of the European session.
  • Oversold RSI on short-term charts warrants caution before placing fresh bearish bets.
  • Attempted recovery beyond the 1.2500 mark might be seen as a selling opportunity.

The USD/CAD pair weakened further below the key 1.2500 psychological mark and dropped to fresh three-year lows during the first half of the European session.

The ongoing bullish run in crude oil prices continued underpinning the commodity-linked loonie. This, along with the heavily offered tone surrounding the US dollar, contributed to the USD/CAD pair's bearish trajectory. 

The overnight bearish break below a one-month-old descending trend-channel support was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Hence, the downfall could further be attributed to some follow-through technical selling.

Meanwhile, RSI on hourly charts are already flashing oversold conditions and also moved on the verge of breaking below the 30 mark on the daily chart. This, in turn, warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for any further depreciating move. Nevertheless, the USD/CAD pair seems vulnerable to prolong its well-established near-term downtrend.

On the flip side, attempted recovery might now confront resistance near the 1.2500 mark. Any further move up might be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the channel support breakpoint, around the 1.2535-40 region. That said, some follow-through buying might trigger a near-term short-covering move and push the USD/CAD pair back towards the 1.2600-1.2610 horizontal resistance.

USD/CAD 4-hourly chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 1.2478
Today Daily Change -0.0033
Today Daily Change % -0.26
Today daily open 1.2511
Daily SMA20 1.271
Daily SMA50 1.2734
Daily SMA100 1.2891
Daily SMA200 1.315
Previous Daily High 1.2598
Previous Daily Low 1.251
Previous Weekly High 1.2746
Previous Weekly Low 1.2594
Previous Monthly High 1.2881
Previous Monthly Low 1.259
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2544
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2565
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2481
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2452
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2393
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2569
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2628
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2657



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