|

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Loonie grinds within bearish channel, 1.3450 and BoC in focus

  • USD/CAD licks its wounds at monthly low within one-week-old descending trend channel.
  • BoC is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged, policy signals will be the key to follow for Loonie traders.
  • Steady RSI suggests slower grind towards the south, convergence of 100-HMA, channel’s top line prods bulls.
  • Three-week-long horizontal area and dovish BoC outlook holds the key for USD/CAD bull’s conviction.

USD/CAD aptly portrays the Loonie trader’s cautious mood ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision as it pares recent losses around a multi-day low heading into Wednesday’s European session. That said, the quote stays defensive near the lowest level in a month despite recently picking up bids to 1.3405.

Also read: USD/CAD braces for BoC near 1.3400 as Oil grinds higher, US Dollar struggles

Apart from the pre-BoC consolidation, the existence of a one-week-long bearish channel also keeps the USD/CAD bears hopeful.

That said, the steady RSI (14) line allows the USD/CAD pair to grind higher within a one-week-old bearish trend channel, currently between 1.3380 and 1.3445-50.

It’s worth noting that the 100-bar Hourly Moving Average (HMA) adds strength to the 1.3445-50 upside hurdle for the pair, a break of which could direct the pair buyers towards a convergence of the 200-HMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May 08-25 upside, near 1.3530.

Should the Loonie pair manages to remain firmer past 1.3530, backed by the dovish BoC outcome, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since mid-April, near 1.3570, acts as the last defense of the USD/CAD bears.

On the contrary, a downside break of the stated channel’s bottom line, close to 1.3380 at the latest, won’t hesitate to challenge the previous monthly high of near 1.3315, a break of which could drag the Loonie pair price towards the yearly low marked in February around 1.3265.

USD/CAD: Hourly chart

Trend: Bearish

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price1.3409
Today Daily Change0.0005
Today Daily Change %0.04%
Today daily open1.3404
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.3509
Daily SMA501.3498
Daily SMA1001.3518
Daily SMA2001.3511
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.3452
Previous Daily Low1.339
Previous Weekly High1.3651
Previous Weekly Low1.3407
Previous Monthly High1.3655
Previous Monthly Low1.3315
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.3414
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.3429
Daily Pivot Point S11.3379
Daily Pivot Point S21.3353
Daily Pivot Point S31.3316
Daily Pivot Point R11.3441
Daily Pivot Point R21.3478
Daily Pivot Point R31.3503

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.1750 due to cautious trade before FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD holds ground after four days of little losses, trading around 1.1770 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains steady as US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting Minutes due later in the day, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold gains on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven demand

Gold price edges higher above $4,350 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was gold's largest single-day loss since October. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries, adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).