USD/CAD price analysis: Canadian Dollar struggles near 1.40 amid soft inflation and trade uncertainty

USD/CAD trades near the 1.4000 area after bouncing from mid-1.38s earlier this week.
Softer Canadian inflation and Powell's tariff warnings pressure the Canadian Dollar outlook.
Key resistance stands at 1.4060; technical backdrop skews bearish despite recent rebound.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

USD/CAD hovered near the 1.4000 zone on Tuesday, consolidating after recovering from earlier lows around the 1.3850 region. The Canadian Dollar failed to gain traction despite a cooler-than-expected inflation report for March, while traders brace for the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. Meanwhile, the US Dollar attempted a mild rebound after days of losses tied to ongoing trade tensions with China.

Canada’s inflation rate slowed to 2.3% annually in March, below expectations and down from 2.6% previously. Month-over-month, CPI rose just 0.3%, missing the 0.7% forecast. The data has slightly softened market expectations that the BoC will hold rates steady at 2.75% in its first policy meeting since June. Markets will closely watch Governor Macklem’s tone, especially as uncertainty rises over how Trump’s aggressive tariff policy may ripple into Canada’s economic outlook.

On the US side, the Greenback faces persistent pressure from global investors as Trump’s tariff escalation continues to undermine confidence. According to Commerzbank analysts, the complexity and unpredictability of current US trade policy are raising inflation risks while damaging trust among global trading partners. Fed Chair Powell echoed these concerns, warning that the inflationary effects of tariffs could be stronger and more prolonged than initially expected. He added that it’s too early to determine the right path for interest rates and that the Fed is in no rush to act.

Technically, USD/CAD shows bearish signals overall, even with a modest gain on the day. The pair trades near the top of its daily range between 1.3850 and 1.3980. The Relative Strength Index sits near 37 in neutral territory, while the MACD prints a sell signal. Despite some mixed signals from momentum indicators, moving averages reinforce the downside outlook: the 20-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, along with the 10-day EMA, all suggest further weakness ahead. Support rests at 1.3827, while resistance levels are located at 1.4002, 1.4060, and 1.4063.

USD/CAD technical analysis

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

GBP/USD: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier

The British pound faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.

Euro defends 1.1500 level ahead of US data

EUR/USD struggles to make a decisive move in either direction and trades in a tight channel above 1.1500 on Tuesday. Investors cling to a cautious stance amid the uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East and help the USD stay resilient against its rivals, limiting the pair's upside ahead of the next batch of US data.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends technical weakness despite whales increasing exposure

Ripple (XRP) declines for a second day in a row, trading around $1.07 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The remittance token has continued to sustain a bearish outlook, aligning with the broader cryptocurrency market.

Volatility waits for fresh catalyst ahead of US-Iran 'talks'

EU mid-market update: SpaceX and AMD to report after the close; Volatility waits for fresh catalyst ahead of US-Iran 'talks'. - Middle East and energy drives sentiment still.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.