|

USD/CAD extends correction, trades below 1.2850

  • USD/CAD reversed its direction and started to decline during American session.
  • WTI is down more than 2% on the day, limiting USD/CAD's downside.
  • US Dollar Index looks to snap four-day winning streak.

After rising to its strongest level since December at 1.2949, the USD/CAD pair reversed its direction during the American session on Friday and erased the majority of its daily gains. As of writing, the pair was up 0.1% on the day at 1.2840. Despite this recent pullback, the pair is still up more than 300 pips for the week.

DXY drops below 93.50 as sentiment recover

Since the beginning of the week, the unabated selling pressure surrounding crude oil made it difficult for the loonie to find demand. Although the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continues to edge lower on Friday, the downward correction witnessed in the US Dollar Index (DXY) seems to be causing the pair to move away from its highs. Currently, WTI is down 2.1% at $62.50.

With the market mood improving ahead of the weekend, the greenback is struggling to preserve its strength. At the moment, the DXY is posting modest daily losses at 93.44 and the S&P 500 Index is rising 0.4%.

Earlier in the day, the data from Canada revealed that Retail Sales rose by 4.2% on a monthly basis in June. This print missed the market expectation of 4.4% but received little to no reaction from markets.

Commenting on the underlying details of the sales report, "Statistics Canada's flash estimate for July suggested a somewhat disappointing 1.7% retreat in sales," noted analysts at CIBC. "We're hoping that just meant that Canadians were spending more money on hard-hit services that became available again."

Technical levels to watch for

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price1.2839
Today Daily Change0.0010
Today Daily Change %0.08
Today daily open1.2829
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2557
Daily SMA501.2474
Daily SMA1001.2373
Daily SMA2001.2557
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2831
Previous Daily Low1.2642
Previous Weekly High1.2589
Previous Weekly Low1.2489
Previous Monthly High1.2808
Previous Monthly Low1.2303
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2759
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2714
Daily Pivot Point S11.2703
Daily Pivot Point S21.2578
Daily Pivot Point S31.2515
Daily Pivot Point R11.2892
Daily Pivot Point R21.2956
Daily Pivot Point R31.3081

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD stays bid above 0.7100 on Australian trade data, Mideast optimism

AUD/USD clings to minor recovery gains above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, strong AustralianTrade Balane data also help the Aussie pair sustain the bounce from weekly lows.

USD/JPY hovers near the 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high in the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions keep the downside limited in the Greenback and the pair.

Gold defends 200-day SMA; upside seems capped on Iran uncertainty

Gold recovers from a one-week low near $4,425, or the 200-day SMA, in the Asian session on Thursday, as news of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire acts as a headwind for the safe-haven US Dollar. However, renewed hostilities in the Gulf, along with stalled US-Iran peace talks, keep geopolitical risks in play and should support the USD, checking the Gold price rebound.


Ethereum: Long-term holders' capitulation drives ETH below $1,800

Ethereum has fallen below $1,800 on Wednesday, the first time since May 2025 following accelerated spot selling pressure and distributions from long-term holders. The Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of previously idle tokens or long-term holders' coins, spiked over the past two days as prices declined, indicating increased selling activity among this cohort.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar
The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.
Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.