USD/CAD challenging 50-DMA near 1.3210; US GDP index 'not that bad' at 2.0%

Jose Ricaurte Jaen Analista independiente

Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3215, up +0.27% or 35-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3226 and low at 1.3164.

Today's US docket had lined up critical news releases as traders and investors expected the US GDP Index that clocked 2.0% 'a worse than expected' figure from 2.1% consensus and previous. Also, GDP annualized clocked another lower result at 1.9% from 2.1% expected consensus, but similar to previous at 1.9%.

Nevertheless, the GDP figures on the surface 'not that bad' extend into a narrative President Trump could easily use to elaborate further stimulus and 'not too far' changes that can boost the US economy far from the anemic conditions its neighbors Canada and Mexico seem to embrace.

USD/CAD: Clean breakout above the resistance levels should prove difficult - Natixis

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 9-weeks that USD/CAD pair, a commodity-linked currency, had the best trading day at +1.71% (Jan.18) or 227-pips, and the worst at -1.02% (Jan.17) or (133)-pips. Furthermore, the US 10yr treasury yields have traded from 2.37% to 2.35%, down -0.15% on the day at 2.36% or -0.0036.

Technical levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 1.3212 (50-DMA), then at 1.3270 (100-DMA) which seems to build a 'Walls of Troy' multi-year resistance region since July 2015 and finally above that at 1.3380 (high Jan.20). While supports are aligned at 1.3082 (low Feb.27), later at 1.2968 (low Jan.31) and below that at 1.2850 (low Sep.8).

On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems to head north. Therefore, there is evidence to expect further US dollar gains in the near term.The pair requires a close and open above the 200-DMA near 1.3140 to dilute any bearish pressure that could drag it lower back to the 1.3010 level.

On the long term view, if the 'double Doji' candlestick formation from 1.3587 (high Nov.) and 1.3597 (high Dec.) is in fact, a relevant top, then any upside potential seems limited for this currency pair. Then, to the downside, supports are aligned at 1.2986 (short-term 23.60% Fib), later at 1.2626 (long-term 50.0% Fib) and finally below that at 1.2460 (low May.2016).

As of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.3215, therefore upside barriers are aligned at 1.3311 (short-term 38.2% Fib), then at 1.3468 (long-term 61.8% Fib) and finally above that at 1.3574 (short-term 50.0% Fib).

USD/JPY inter-markets: awaits Trump to resume prior appreciating move?

Author

Jose Ricaurte Jaen

Analista independiente

Born in Colón (Panamá). Over the last years, he has been designing currency algorithms for the retail industry.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary.

Changing the game: International implications of recent tariff developments

The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.