|

US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is seen declining to 57.9 in March

  • Consumer confidence in the US declined markedly in early March.
  • One-year inflation expectation edged higher to 4.9%.

US Consumer Sentiment took a dip in early March, according to the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. The gauge slipped from 64.7 in February to 57.9, missing the market’s forecast.

Breaking it down further, the Current Conditions Index edged down from 65.7 to 63.5, while the Consumer Expectations Index moved from 64.0 to 54.2.

On the inflation front, the survey revealed a noticeable uptick in one-year inflation expectations—from 4.3% to 4.9%—and the five-year outlook rose from 3.5% to 3.9%.

Market reaction

The release of the indicator did not move the Greenback’s dial, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) resuming its downtrend after two-daily upticks in a row and revisiting the 103.80 region, down modestly for the day.

(This story was corrected on March 14 at 14:11 GMT to say that consumer confidence declined markedly in early March, not October.)

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Editor's Picks

USD/JPY holds pullback from 161.80 on hawkish BoJ-speak

USD/JPY is holding above 161.00 in the Asian session on Friday, on a retreat from its highest level since July 2024 set the previous day. Hawkish BoJ commentary and April Minutes affirm further rate hike expectations, offsetting the softer Japanese National CPI print and support the Japanese Yen as intervention fears loom.

AUD/USD attacks 0.7000 amid stronger US Dollar

AUD/USD attacks 0.7000 in the Asian session on Friday, remaining close to the weekly low, and seems poised to register modest weekly losses. The US Dollar sits near its highest level since May 2025 as the Fed's hawkish tilt overshadows optimism over the US-Iran peace deal, weighing on the pair.

Gold sits at weekly lows below $4,200 as Fed's hawkish tilt boosts USD

Gold falls for the third consecutive day and weakens below $4,200, sitting at a fresh weekly low in the Asian session on Friday. Despite the latest optimism over a US-Iran peace deal, the Fed's hawkish tilt helps the US Dollar preserve its strong weekly gains to over a yearly high, undermining the non-yielding bullion.

Economics week ahead
Consumer resilience is holding for now, but underlying fundamentals continue to erode. Incoming data—like control group retail sales and higher-frequency card data—point to a solid nominal consumption backdrop in May.
 Back above 100: Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting sparks US Dollar rally

The US Dollar Index did a phoenix comeback, rising from its ashes and reconquering 100. The reasons behind the US Dollar rally are pretty clear: the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Both events were long-awaited and much expected. However, the market reacted with surprise when there were no surprises at all.

The next big AI trade may not be about chips or software

Artificial intelligence has already created some of the biggest winners in modern market history. Chipmakers have surged, data centre construction is booming, and electricity demand forecasts are changing globally.