US: Trade standoff likely has inched up Fed officials' downside risks - TD Securities


Previewing next week's macro events in the United States, TD Securities analysts note that Fed Chairman Powell and voting FOMC members Evans, Rosengren, and Bullard will be delivering speeches.

Key quotes

"The trade standoff likely has inched up Fed officials' downside risks, but not to the point that comments this week will support market pricing for outright rate cuts. The May FOMC minutes on Wednesday should show a cautious Fed with a majority expecting transitory low inflation."

"We expect durable goods orders to dip -3.0% m/m in April, giving back part of its strong 2.6% gain in March. A large decline in the nondefense aircraft segment (driven by Boeing woes) and a drop in vehicles orders are likely to drag the headline measure lower. We also pencil in a -0.4% m/m retreat in durable goods ex-transportation and a larger -0.8% slide in core capex orders."

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