US: Retail sales expected to post 0.4% growth in October - Nomura

Research Team at Nomura, notes that the US retail sales increased 0.6% m-o-m in September from a revised 0.2% decline in August, in line with market expectations.

Key Quotes

“However, core retail sales, which are an input into GDP estimation, fell short of market expectations. It grew only modestly by 0.1% m-o-m following two consecutive months of declines.”

“We expect core retail sales to grow at a faster pace in October. The ISM nonmanufacturing business activity index remained well above 50 in October at 57.7, indicating that activity expanded at a solid pace. Also, consumer fundamentals remain sound. Wage growth accelerated in October and the labor market continues to create jobs at a solid pace. Taking all these factors into account, we forecast that core retail sales increased by 0.4% m-o-m in October.”

“On noncore components, we expect sales for motor vehicles and parts to show another strong performance as total vehicles sales grew further in October. Gasoline prices have trended higher further in October, which should boost nominal sales at gasoline stations again. All together, we forecast that retail sales increased by 0.7% m-o-m and retail sales excluding autos increased by 0.5% m-o-m in October.”