Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a latest note on Thursday, “we don’t expect a recession”, citing “a 35% chance of a recession.”
“Our baseline is a soft-landing.”
“Do not see the economy losing jobs on a monthly basis at all this year.”
“Monthly payroll growth could slip below 100,000.”
“Expect inflation to 2% to 3% range by late this year or 2024.”
“I think inflation has pretty clearly peaked.”
“If there were any doubt about the US government’s ability or willingness to make interest and principal payments on time, that could have very, very adverse consequences.”
“That is the worry: That you get turmoil in financial markets, a big tightening in financial conditions and that adds to downward pressure on economic activity.”
“That is certainly the worry. It’s not our expectation. ... We think ultimately a solution will be found.”
“These solutions are often found at the very last moment.”
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