US: NFP likely to bounce to 165k in March – Deutsche Bank

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Deutsche Bank analysts are expecting the US NFP to print 165k in March after we had that huge plunge in February payroll growth to just +20k which was the lowest since September 2017 and the third lowest since January 2011.

Key Quotes

“Expectations are for a bounce back 177k print however that is still below the average of the last three (186k), six (190k) and twelve (212k) months. To be fair there is a decent range on the Bloomberg survey at 110k to 277k.”

“Our US economists have a 165k forecast and they note that the hostile weather in mid-March also raises the risk of another downside miss. As for earnings, the consensus is for a solid +0.3% mom reading (DB at +0.2% mom) which should keep the annual rate at +3.4% yoy. The unemployment rate is also expected to hold steady at 3.8%. So lots to look out for as ever.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

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