US ISM Manufacturing PMI declines to 49 in March vs. 49.5 expected

The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped into contraction territory below 50 in March.
US Dollar Index holds slightly above 104.00 after the data.

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

The business activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector contracted in March, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 49 from 50.3 in February. This reading came in below the market expectation of 49.5.

The Employment Index fell to 44.7 from 47.6 in the same period, highlighting a decrease in the sector's payrolls at an accelerating pace. In the meantime, the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component of the survey, rose to 69.4 from 62.4.

Commenting on the survey's findings, Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said: "Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to demand confusion." "Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth," he added.

Market reaction

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to gather strength against its rivals following the disappointing PMI data. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.05% on the day at 104.12.

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

EUR/USD deflates to fresh lows, targets 1.1600

The selling pressure on EUR/USD now gathers extra pace, prompting the pair to hit fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1625-1.1620 band on Friday. The continuation of the downward bias comes in response to further gains in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess the mixed release of US Nonfarm Payrolls in December.

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.

Gold hits a fresh record high as rising geopolitical risks boost safe-haven demand

Gold scales higher for the third straight day and climbs to a fresh all-time peak, beyond the $4,550 level, during the Asian session on Monday. Reports that US President Donald Trump is weighing a series of potential military options in Iran following deadly protests in the country fuel the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions amid the protracted Russia-Ukraine war. This, along with rising bets for more rate cuts by the Fed, offsets the recent US Dollar rally and is seen benefiting the safe-haven bullion.

Week ahead: US CPI might challenge the geopolitics-boosted Dollar

Geopolitics may try to steal the limelight from US data. A possible US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could dictate market movements. Dollar strength might be tested if investors refocus on Fed expectations. A crammed data calendar next week, US CPI comes on Tuesday; Fedspeak to intensify. Euro weakness persists, lingering risk of deterioration in US-EU relations.

Week ahead – US CPI might challenge the geopolitics-boosted Dollar

Geopolitics may try to steal the limelight from US data. A possible US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could dictate market movements. A crammed data calendar next week, US CPI comes on Tuesday; Fedspeak to intensify.

XRP trades under pressure amid weak retail demand

XRP presses down on the 50-day EMA support as risk-averse sentiment spreads despite a positive start to 2026. XRP faces declining retail demand, as reflected in futures Open Interest, which has fallen to $4.15 billion.