US: Industrial production expected to surge by 0.6% in April - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura forecast a 0.6% m-o-m increase in US industrial production in April following a steady 0.5% m-o-m increase in March.

Key Quotes

“We expect ex-auto manufacturing output to increase by 0.7% m-o-m in April, which fell 0.1% m-o-m in March following an upwardly revised 1.0% m-o-m gain in February. We think that the decline in factory output in March was transitory and maintain our optimistic manufacturing sector outlook. Further, data on aggregate hours worked in the manufacturing sector point to a strong rebound activity in April.”

“Looking ahead, tax policy changes, including favorable expensing provisions over the near term, along with synchronized global growth, will likely provide support for business investment, while increased trade concerns have the potential to dampen business sentiment significantly. However, based on industry data, auto assemblies likely declined sharply following a firm increase in the previous month. In addition, considering continued growth in oil and gas extraction, we expect a steady gain in mining sector output. Utilities sector output likely rose firmly as April was colder than usual. On the downside, autos output may have slowed in April after a solid 4.3% m-o-m jump in March.”