US GDP Q2 third estimate and Q3 GDP tracker update - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their review of the Q2 GDP, third estimate.

Key Quotes:

"For the final reading, Q2 real GDP increased 3.1% q-o-q saar, mostly in line with expectations (Nomura: 3.2%, Consensus: 3.0%), reflecting a 0.1pp upward revision from the second estimate. PCE growth was solid at a 3.3% pace, unchanged from the second estimate. The biggest driver of PCE growth in Q2 was service spending, which rose by an upwardly revised 2.3%, likely reflecting the Q2 Quarterly Services Survey."

"However, the upward revision to service spending was mostly offset by a downward revision to durable goods spending. Much of the weakness in durable goods spending can be attributed to spending on autos, whose contribution to top-line GDP was lowered to meager 0.02pp from 0.09pp"

" Business fixed investment rose at a solid pace of 6.7%. But private residential investment was revised down, reflecting a slower pace of growth in home sales and construction. The contribution from inventory investment was weak, but it was positive to the top-line GDP growth."

"It was revised up to 0.12pp from 0.02pp. Elsewhere, corporate profits rebounded by 0.7% q-o-q, after falling 2.1% in Q1. Financial sector profit growth was relatively soft, but nonfinancial sector profit rose solidly.

GDP tracking update: The better-than-expected trade deficit along with strong stockpiling activity pushed up our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by three-tenths of a percent to 2.4% from 2.1%."