US: Focus on jobless claims and consumer credit – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US initial claims to continue to fall to its low trend and suggests that subdued initial jobless claims would portend continued strength in the labor market.

Key Quotes

“With voluntary quits, unqualified for unemployment insurance, now comprising roughly 60% of total firm-worker separations, initial jobless claims will likely remain subdued as workers freely move between employers in a tight labor market instead of facing potential layoffs.”

“Consumer credit: Consumer credit expanded modestly in September by $20.8bn. On a 12-month basis, both revolving and non-revolving consumer credit growth continues to decelerate somewhat, but both measures remain in healthy territory and likely reflect supportive consumer fundamentals going into 2018. We expect steady expansion in consumer credit for October.”