US: Expect a decent rebound of 1.1% m-o-m in durable goods orders - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a decent rebound of 1.1% m-o-m in US durable goods orders ex-transportation (Consensus: 0.6%) for the month of February.

Key Quotes

“Durable goods orders were up 2.0% m-o-m in January after two months of decline in December and November. Excluding volatile transportation components, durable goods orders remained flat in January, putting an end to six consecutive months of improvement. Yet, in February, we expect a decent rebound of 1.1% m-o-m in durable goods orders ex-transportation (Consensus: 0.6%) as incoming data point to some continued improvement in business capital investment. For example, the aggregate hours worked in the durable goods sector improved steadily to the tune of its 3-month average in February, implying sustained improvement in activity. Moreover, the new orders index from the ISM manufacturing survey, which improved for the third month in February, suggests the momentum in the manufacturing activity continued.”

“Among volatile transportation components, industry data suggest that motor vehicle and parts orders likely improved. Moreover, we expect nondefense aircrafts and parts orders increased only moderately, following an outsized increase of 69.8% in January. However, incoming data suggest defense aircrafts and parts orders likely decreased sharply, in part, due to a negative payback from a sharp jump in the prior month. All in all, we expect transportation-related durable goods orders to have increased modestly. Altogether, we expect headline durable goods orders to have increased 1.4% m-o-m (Consensus: 1.3%).”