US: Expect 0.8% increase in retail sales in January - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura forecast a healthy 0.5% m-o-m increase in US “control”) retail sales in January.

Key Quotes

“Survey indicators suggest healthy business activity in the month. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose notably to 59.8, above markets’ expectations. The report also indicated strong expansion in new orders and business activity. We think core retail sales will reflect this vigor. Among non-core components, we expect a notable boost from sales at gasoline stations. Retail gasoline prices likely increased strongly in the month, which should boost nominal sales at gasoline stations.”

“Further, we expect a slowdown in sales at autos and auto parts dealerships from the prior month. If realized, this would be consistent with the slowdown in light vehicle sales in January from the pace in December, as reported by WardsAuto. Excluding auto sales, we forecast a 0.8% m-o-m increase in retail sales. Altogether, we expect a 0.4% m-o-m increase in total retail sales.”