US Elections: Trump is now ahead of Hillary Clinton by 44% to 39% - Rabobank

Michael Every, Head of Financial Markets Reseach at Rabobank, notes that according to a CNNPolitics poll, Donald Trump is now ahead of Hillary Clinton 44% to 39% in a hypothetical four-way match-up for the US presidency that also includes Libertarian Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein of the Greens (3%); even in a head-to-head with Clinton, Trump is ahead 48% to 45%.

Key Quotes

“The poll notes increased Trump support among independents, seen as key to the presidential election this year: before the Republican National Convention, which commentators noted was far from the usual show of party unity, such independent voters were split 34% - 31% for Clinton, with Johnson on 22%, and Stein on 10%; the CNN poll now shows 46% backing Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson, and 4% Stein.

Trump also now holds double-digit leads as being more trusted on both the economy and on terrorism. An important point to stress is that CNN shows a sharp divide: among white voters with college degrees, Clinton is ahead 44% to 39%; however, among white voters without a college degree Trump is ahead by 62% to 23%. The Brexit vote has already shown all-too clearly that financial markets would be well placed to consider how broad a range of opinions they are really hearing rather than dismissing the thought of unconventional policies.

Of course, this week sees the rival Democrat National Convention (DNC), where Clinton will be hoping for her own poll bounce, even if so far it appears to have been overshadowed by storms both outside and inside the venue: indeed, it looks to be the second unconventional convention this year (and this morning a flash flood swept away the media tent.)”