USD: Softer payrolls expected – Deutsche Bank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Deutsche Bank economists project a slowdown in February Nonfarm Payrolls to 30k from January’s 130k, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.3%. The bank notes two‑sided risks due to BLS population control changes, while recent jobless claims and Fed commentary suggest a labour market that is stabilizing rather than weakening sharply.

Payroll growth seen easing from January

"In terms of what to expect, our US economists think that payrolls will be up +30k, coming down from the 13-month high of +130k in January."

"Then for unemployment, they see that remaining at 4.3%, but they note that carries elevated risks in both directions given that the BLS will implement their annual population controls."

"In addition, the latest weekly initial jobless claims were slightly beneath expectations, at 213k in the week ending Feb 28 (vs. 215k expected), so that added to the optimism ahead of today's jobs report."

"And we saw more positive comments on the labour market from Fed Vice Chair Bowman, who said it showed more “signs of stabilizing”."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

160.80: Japanese Yen remains close to nearly two-year lows

USD/JPY inches lower after four days of gains, trading around 160.60 during the Asian hours. The USD/JPY pair surged to 160.80 the previous day, marking its highest level since July 2024 and significantly heightening speculation that Japanese authorities could soon intervene to support the struggling Yen.

Australian Dollar remains in positive territory after paring recent gains

AUD/USD pares its daily gains, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 0.7010 during the European hours. The pair appreciated as the Australian Dollar received support from prevailing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.

Gold retreats below $4,300 as USD benefits from hawkish Fed

Gold (XAU/USD) stays on the back foot in the European session and trades below $4,300. Although easing tensions in the Middle East help XAU/USD limit its losses, the broad-based USD strength in the Fed aftermath causes bulls to turn hesitant.

Bitcoin slips below $64,000 as hawkish Fed stance weighs on risk appetite

Bitcoin remains under pressure, extending its correction, trading below $64,000. The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone on Wednesday, dampening the risk sentiment.

Bank Indonesia increases rates by 25 basis points in June: Will it defend the Rupiah?

Bank Indonesia decided to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 18, from the previous 5.5%. The decision aligned with the market expectations. The Indonesian Rupiah receives support against the US Dollar as an immediate reaction to the BI interest rate decision. The USD/IDR is trading around 17,820.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.