|

US Dollar to peak and then weaken in 2023 – Citi

Economists at Citi look for an end to the US Dollar’s mighty ascent.

CAD to strengthen once broader USD strength wanes

“We expect the US Dollar rally since 2021 to exhaust itself sometime in 2023 and then to reverse course. This is partly because the Fed is likely to stop raising interest rates more aggressively than other G10 central banks as economic growth slows.”

“Positioning for dollar strength has become a crowded trade as investors seek out “safe haven” assets amid uncertainty. The US has large trade and fiscal deficits that should prompt softening over time.”

“We expect the Canadian Dollar to strengthen once broader US Dollar strength wanes.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD keeps range near 0.6950 after Australian trade data

AUD/USD consolidates near a two-month low, trading around mid-0.6900s in the Asian session on Thursday amid a bullish US Dollar. The US PCE data tempered October Fed hike bets, though oil-driven inflation fears remain supportive of elevated US bond yields. Meanwhile, Australia's trade surplus shrank sharply in August to AUD495M, having limited impact on the Aussie Dollar and the pair.


USD/JPY sits at weekly top above 158.00 as bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY is sitting at the top end of its weekly range above 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Despite the softer US PCE data, oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. Moreover, the US-Iran standoff benefits the safe-haven US Dollar and supports the pair. Broad US Dollar strength counters hawkish BoJ expectations and Japanese intervention risks.

Gold struggles near $4,150 as elevated US yields and Iran risks support USD

Gold struggles near $4,150 early Thursday, holding the previous day's pullback from $4,220. Oil-driven inflation risks counter softer US PCE data and support elevated US bond yields, undermining the non-yielding bullion. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty allows the safe-haven US Dollar to retain a bullish undertone, keeping a lid on the commodity.

Why CLARITY Act's failure is beneficial for crypto
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated Wednesday that the crypto market has rallied since the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, arguing that the legislation’s collapse allowed regulators to move faster on industry rules. Hougan noted that Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 8% and Ethereum (ETH) 7% since the vote, while several altcoins posted larger gains.
The Fed's October hike shrinks with the inflation it was built on

Traders have moved the next Federal Reserve hike from October 28 to December 9, and the inflation report that added to the move said more about July than August. The government's annual rewrite, published alongside the August Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, cut July's core reading, which leaves out food and energy, from 3.3% to 3%.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025, but a fresh inflation shock in the Eurozone could give the Euro (EUR) an unexpected lifeline. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082.