• The DXY struggled above 104.00 and dropped lower modestly.
  • The upbeat NFP vs lower inflation forecasts have confused the market participants.
  • Fed’s Bostic sees interest rates between 2.00-2.50% by the end of 2023.

The US dollar index (DXY) is oscillating in a narrow range of 103.58-103.77 in the Asian session as investors are awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will dictate the further direction of the asset. The US CPI will be released on Wednesday, and investors expect a slippage in the figures. A preliminary estimate for the US CPI is 8.1% against the multi-year high print of 8.5% recorded last month.

Upbeat NFP vs Lower inflation forecasts

The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) landed at 428k last week. The job additions remained higher than the forecast of 391k, which bolstered the odds of a 75 basis point (bps) by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for June’s monetary policy. On the other side, a lower inflation forecast indicates that recent quantitative measures are barricading the soaring inflation, and an occurrence of the same may compel the Fed to adopt not so aggressive hawkish stance. Therefore, investors are in a dilemma on betting with or against the DXY, which has turned the asset sideways.

Fed’s Bostic speech

On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the Fed's most recent 50 bps rate hike was an "aggressive" move and that the Fed can stay at this pace, as per his interview at Bloomberg. Fed policymaker sees interest rates in a defined range of 2.0-2.5% by the end of 2023.

Key events this week: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Initial Jobless Claims, Producers Price Index (PPI), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks, China’s CPI, and European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech.

Dollar Index Spot

Overview
Today last price 103.71
Today Daily Change -0.02
Today Daily Change % -0.02
Today daily open 103.73
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 101.96
Daily SMA50 100
Daily SMA100 98
Daily SMA200 96.06
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 104.19
Previous Daily Low 103.39
Previous Weekly High 104.07
Previous Weekly Low 102.34
Previous Monthly High 103.94
Previous Monthly Low 98.31
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 103.69
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 103.88
Daily Pivot Point S1 103.35
Daily Pivot Point S2 102.97
Daily Pivot Point S3 102.55
Daily Pivot Point R1 104.15
Daily Pivot Point R2 104.57
Daily Pivot Point R3 104.95

 

 

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